Peer-Reviewed Publications
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Trade Wars and Election Interference
(with Ryan Brutger and Stephen Chaudoin)
Review of International Organizations (2023)
In response to the Trump trade war, China, the EU, and other countries enacted politically-targeted trade retaliation (PTTR) against swing states and Republican strongholds in the United States. We argue that PTTR increases public concerns about foreign election interference and assess the effects of such retaliation across partisan affiliations. We test our predictions using a national survey experiment in the United States fielded before the 2020 election. In contrast to findings about sanctions and foreign endorsements, we find strong evidence that PTTR increases fears of election interference among both Republicans and Democrats. Partisan double standards in reaction to PTTR were strongest for retaliation targeting swing states and smaller for retaliation targeting the President’s base. Overall, the evidence shows that economic policies which are not primarily intended to influence elections may nevertheless come to be viewed by the public as foreign election interference.
Working Papers
Working Papers
Office Parties: Partisan Sorting in the United States Labor Market
(with Justin Frake and Reuben Hurst)
Latest Draft [SSRN] | Niskanen Center Coverage (Science of Politics podcast)
Despite a growing literature showing that Americans are increasingly geographically and socially sorted along political lines, there exists no large-scale estimate of the degree to which Americans are sorted by political partisanship at work. This is despite the large and important role the workplace plays in cultivating cross-partisan contact. We address this gap using a novel longitudinal dataset created by merging voter registration data with 17 million online employee profiles covering 14.5 million unique workers from 2012–2022. We present four main findings. First, partisans are sorted by workplace. We estimate that the average Democratic worker’s co-workers are about 15 percentage points more Democratic than the average Republican’s co-workers, and vice versa. Accounting for factors correlated with partisanship—geography, occupation, and industry—reduces this estimate to about 2 percentage points, which is similar in magnitude to our estimates of workplace sorting by gender and race. Second, sorting is more pronounced among white workers, more senior workers, and workers that are more politically active. Third, since 2017, political sorting has increased among new joiners to firms. Fourth, because Democrats comprise a greater share of the workforce, sorting means that Republicans experience a significantly larger share of out-partisan coworkers. We conclude by outlining avenues for future research regarding the origins and consequences of workplace partisan sorting.
Do Conservative Social Policies Harm Access to Employee Talent? Evidence from the North Carolina Bathroom Bill
In recent years, business leaders have spoken out against government policies on political issues such as LGBT rights and abortion. One common explanation for “corporate sociopolitical activism” (CSA) is that government policies can make it harder to attract talented employees, and so companies publicly oppose these policies which have the potential to harm their businesses. While these employee-centric justifications for CSA are widespread, there is limited evidence measuring whether these types of policies actually do have a negative impact on firms’ ability to attract employees. This paper tests whether government policies do harm businesses by reducing their access to employee talent. I look at employee responses to North Carolina’s HB2 law (the “bathroom bill”), which prompted national attention and led over 100 CEOs to argue that it would harm North Carolina’s ability to attract workers. Using administrative data which cover 95% of U.S. employees, I find no evidence that HB2 resulted in a decline in workers’ in-migration to North Carolina or an increase in workers’ out-migration from the state, meaning that the bill did not appear to reduce North Carolina employers’ access to talent. Furthermore, I also find no evidence that wage differentials for workers relocating to North Carolina increased, as we would expect if employers were facing difficulties hiring or retaining employees. These null findings are very precisely estimated and hold for both overall in-migration and out-migration, as well as for different educational categories of employees (e.g., college-educated workers).
This Bud's For You? The Effect of Partisan Cues on Politically Polarized Brands
Real-world events and political cues can induce political polarization in consumption patterns. When politically-motivated customers find out that seemingly neutral or apolitical brands support a political party or take a political stance, they may respond by boycotting or “buycotting” the brand in question. To date, no research has explored what happens when customers receive a political cue about a brand that is not viewed as neutral or apolitical, but one which already has a polarized reputation. This survey experiment takes advantage of the recent conservative boycott of Bud Light following the brand’s partnership with a transgender social media influencer. I find that partisan political cues likely constitute a one-way ratchet on polarized brand reputations. Political signals may induce polarization in consumer preferences but are unlikely to be able to reverse already-existing polarization. I also find that this polarization in expressed attitudes may not always be backed up with actual changes in economic behavior, as a significant portion of respondents who claim to be boycotting the brand give inconsistent survey responses which suggest they may not actually be boycotting.
Earlier-Stage Projects
Earlier-Stage Projects
How Industries Polarize: Partisan Sorting of Young Adults, 1965-2022
(with John Konicki)
Political Polarization and Labor Market Sorting (with Cevat Giray Aksoy, Nicolás Ajzenman, and Ruben Durante)
Public Attitudes Towards Corporate Sociopolitical Activism
(with Vanessa Burbano)
Red Beer, Blue Beer? Big Data Evidence on Partisan Political Consumerism